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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.