The Way This Unusual Campaign Shattered the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.
Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.
On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.
Yet the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.
This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.
The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.
In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!
The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.
What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.
Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.
The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.
Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.
Still