Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
